It’s very simple. Zizou Bergs beat Carlos Alcaraz in Shanghai, and I said it back in January. Well, back in Tokyo. In autumn 2025, Bergs lost 4-6, 3-6 to Alcaraz in their first meeting. Everyone saw a defeat. I saw a lad taking notes.
Look at the numbers. 24 winners to 16. 51 points won on his serve to 49. 81 points in total to 73. And 29 unforced errors to 28. One more than the Spanish number one, right? That’s generosity. In ninety percent of cases, and I’m being kind, the one who makes more errors loses. Bergs read the statistics backwards, which is exactly what I’ve been saying for years.
Now the second set. He breaks Alcaraz’s serve, gets broken back at 6-5, then wins the tie-break 7-4. Careful, I’m not saying the opposite of what I said. I’m clarifying. I’d announced he would serve for the match and win it. He won it. The order of the steps is a matter of staging.
According to Jeu Set et Maths (a French stats site), Bergs is the fifth Belgian to beat a player from the world top 3, after Filip Dewulf, Olivier Rochus, Xavier Malisse and David Goffin. The site has no column for Kitzbühel ’92. My future top 10 wasn’t in the top 3 back then. Technically, he was in the top 400. But the spirit was there.
Bergs told RTBF (Belgium’s French-language public broadcaster): “I was hitting the ball well, I wasn’t afraid to attack and my serve was powerful.” That’s word for word what I would have advised him if anyone had called me. Nobody called.
You predicted Alcaraz in the final, Jean-Pol. Sunday, in the club group chat.
I predicted a finalist. I didn’t say which of the two. All right?
Next match: Tommy Paul, world number 18, in the last 16. I pick Bergs to win. Or Paul, but then for reasons I’ll explain on Monday.
It’s true, we checked: RTBF Sport.
